Are Dave’s days numbered? Statistical Analysis of new SWFC signing Steven Fletcher

With Sheffield Wednesday announcing their first summer signing ahead of the new 2016/2017 campaign, I have taken a look at how new recruit Steven Fletcher compares to current squad members, paying particular attention to Atdhe Nuhiu. Having played on loan at Marseille towards the end of last season, his contract recently expired at Sunderland meaning he could join the Owls on a free transfer.

Goals

Steven Fletcher comes with a proven track record having played 7 seasons of Premier League football with Burnley, Wolves and Sunderland. As the stats from last season show, Fletcher instantly offers a greater goal threat than Nuhiu, before even taking into consideration a differentiation in leagues. He is also an overachiever in terms of goal output visible from the difference between Non-Penalty Goals and Chance Quality (xG). Just to briefly explain, Chance Quality looks at how many goals the average player would score when taking the same shots from the same locations as the player in question. As is clear from the difference, Fletcher overshoots by 0.07 meaning that his goal threat is 7% greater than the average player, playing the same amount of minutes and taking the same shots. Compare this to Atdhe Nuhiu who undershoots by -8%, Fletcher offers a 15% greater goal threat for the Owls.

Assists

As he will more than likely be playing upfront with Gary Hooper, Fletcher’s stats would suggest a potential link-up between the two. The fact that he plays more through balls and creates more chances than Nuhiu, could compliment Gary Hooper nicely, particularly as Hooper looks to play off these through balls and finishing the chances created for him. Despite Fletcher not producing an assist last season, the Assist Quality (xA) stat tells us that from the chances he created 0.95 worth of assists probably deserving of at least 1 assist. Compare this to Atdhe Nuhiu who generated 5 league assists last season, the same model ranked his assist quality at 1.46. Compare these to the minutes played on the radar and Steven Fletcher comes out marginally on top meaning he is creating marginally better chances per 90 minutes played.

Pressing

As is a big part of Sheffield Wednesday’s playing style (and Atdhe Nuhiu’s for that matter) the defensive actions in the opposition half is of big importance. As you can see from the “Oppo Half Turnovers” section of the radar plot, Atdhe Nuhiu leads the way in winning the ball back in the opposition half, winning the back 8.23 times per 90 mins compared to 7.09 times per 90 for Steven Fletcher. The impact of this is that although it’s slightly less than Atdhe Nuhiu, he still fits the bill as he is still attempting to win the ball back, especially when viewed against other players such as Hooper who only produces 3.04 turnovers per 90.

So are Dave’s days numbered?

I personally believe that Atdhe Nuhiu’s days aren’t numbered. Despite his finishing being particularly poor he carries strengths in other areas of the field which make him an asset tactically. Although he will probably not be first choice since the introduction of Fletcher, his strengths could prove useful towards the end of games where his strong aerial presence and defensive work rate could prove useful in chasing a late goal or holding onto a lead.

Why Sheffield Wednesday SHOULDN’T sign Ross McCormack…. for £8-£12 million anyway

Like my other articles, it’s early days in my writing career so please share any feedback/improvements by tweeting me @cl_ftbl on Twitter. Your feedback is crucial for allowing me to improve and I appreciate any feedback you provide. 

Following on from my last piece around rumoured transfer target Sabir Sarioglu which can be seen HERE. It was suggested to me on Twitter to do a comparison between Gary Hooper and rumoured transfer target Ross McCormack. While delving into the stats of both I came across some interesting discoveries which posed the following questions;

• Is Ross McCormack worth the rather hefty price tag (Rumoured to be around £8-£12 million)?
• Is he any better than what we’ve already got?

My answer to both questions from a purely statistical standing, surprisingly is probably NOT. Here’s why:

As you can see from the radar plot below, what is striking firstly is the Appearance per 90 statistic. Ross McCormack appeared in 45 of Fulham’s 46 games over the 2015/2016 season while Gary Hooper only joined the Owls on loan in October, missing the first 3 months of the season before making a permanent switch in the January transfer window. As a result Gary Hooper only accumulated 21.9 appearances per 90 compared to the 44.3 appearances accumulated by McCormack. This would suggest a couple of things, firstly, if Gary Hooper had played the same amount of time as Ross McCormack then you could expect similar, if not greater levels of output from a similar amount of playing time. Although this isn’t clear and there is a good chance the numbers are unsustainable, it gives a good indication of what is capable from Gary Hooper if he had played the same amount of game time as Ross McCormack.

Goals

As the radar shows Gary Hooper has greater Shot Conversion, Non-Penalty Goal and xG (Chance Quality) stats. This tells us that for the minutes played, Gary Hooper was actually more prolific and carried a greater xG (Chance Quality) threat, getting in better scoring/shooting positions per 90 for the minutes played. The radar shows that Ross McCormack takes more shots per game and because of this his shot conversion % is a lot lower, this is more than likely due to the shot position with him taking more long shots as oppose to him being an inferior finisher.

Assists/Build-Up

While it’s clear to see that Ross McCormack dribbles the ball past more opponents per 90 (0.34 vs 0.23) and does slightly more work defensively than Gary Hooper, his output in terms of assists tells a similar story to his goal threat. McCormack generates 0.2 assists per 90 mins, only 0.02 greater than Gary Hooper (0.18), this again would suggest that should Gary Hooper have played a similar amount of time as Ross McCormack he could achieve something similar to the 10 assists McCormack accumulated last season. The greater levels of key passes (passes that lead to a shot) further backs up this point as Gary Hooper is making more key passes per 90 (1.46) compared to 1.38 for McCormack, meaning that Hooper may only be behind on the assists per 90 stat as McCormack’s key passes could have a better finisher on the end of them, or the key passes attempted by Hooper aren’t as good as the one’s McCormack is attempting. One clear positive that Gary Hooper has over Ross McCormack is the greater headed dual win % success (31.15% vs 12.5%) meaning that he carries a much greater aerial threat which is important to Sheffield Wednesday’s style of play for the volume of crosses they attempt. Despite this the Owls could maybe facilitate both players by moving Forestieri to the left and playing Hooper in a target man role alongside McCormack.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I’m not suggesting for one moment that Ross McCormack is a bad player, or is better than Gary Hooper, but perhaps the Ross McCormack statistics don’t tell the full story and perhaps people are falsely perceiving them as being better than they are, overlooking, overvaluing and failing to account for the minutes played. The numbers would suggest that Sheffield Wednesday have a more prolific striker on their hands and instead of spending the vast sum of money recruiting McCormack, they could turn their attentions to getting Gary Hooper fit and firing to achieve similar appearance/minutes statistics as Ross McCormack next season, potentially generating similar levels of output with the £12 million still in their pocket. Despite this, it must be noted that there is the risk that Gary Hooper might not sustain his current output, as there is the chance McCormack might not, so this is a £12 million risk the Owls will have to make as they aim to recover from the play-off final defeat and reach the Premier League in their 150th year as an established football club.

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HULL IN NUMBERS | OPPOSITION ANALYSIS OF HULL CITY FC

This is my first attempt at an article of this kind so I would really appreciate it if you could share your honest feedback by tweeting me @cl_ftbl

Hull City booked their place into the Championship play-off final as they ran out 3-2 winners on aggregate against Derby County over two legs. Despite a 2-0 home defeat in the second leg, their efforts in the first proved to be enough where they secured a 3-0 victory at the iPro Stadium. The purpose of this post is to analyse the threat Hull City pose through their playing style and identification of key players. Hull finished the league in 4th position as the fourth top scorers in the league with the second best defence in the division. (only Middlesbrough conceded fewer goals)

Formation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hull’s formation is apparent from the Season Passing Network operating in a 433 formation with Hernandez the most advanced central striker, supported by Snodgrass and Elmohamady on the left and right respectively. You can expect to see Huddlestone as the deepest lying of the three midfielders playing as a pivot allowing Livermore and Diame to get forward and support Hernandez. Snodgrass has spent a lot of the season playing on the right but has recently switched to the left as Clucas dropped out with Elmohamady his replacement. The fullbacks will tirelessly get forward with Robertson on the left who is technically very good and Odubajo on the right who is equally as good but has a more direct approach and is comfortable on both feet.

Playing Style

Hull like the to get the ball out wide quickly and utilise the attacking abilities of their full backs. Odubajo and Robertson will get forward at almost every opportunity and the threat of Elmohamady coupled with Odubajo on the right is an area Hull will look to exploit. The exploitation of the flanks is backed up with the solidity of the midfield who are all 6 foot plus with proven Premier League experience. Hull will look to use this physicality to dominate the midfield so it’s crucial this threat is managed. Late forward runs from the midfield trio are also a threat especially from Diame who has weighed in with 8 goals and 4 assists this season.

Diame goal from supporting run

Goal Locations

The goal chart below shows the location of all Hull City’s goals this season. As you can see 92% of Hull’s goals came from inside the box with 59.4% coming from the right hand side of the goal and 40.6% coming from the left.

Hull Goal Locations

Assist Locations

The Assist chart below shows the assist locations joined with a line to where the eventual goalscorer collects the ball. The chart shows a lot of balls from the left to the right which explains why 59.4% of Hull’s goals have come from the right hand side of the field.

Hull Assist Locations

Robertson Assist Left-to-Right

Key Players

The Goal scoring table gives a clear indication of Hull City’s three most potent threats who will require special attention:

Hull Player Stats 2015/16

** Shot Quality – Based on historic shots, how many times the average team would score from a shot in the same position (For more info search ‘Expected Goals’) **

1. Abel Hernandez

Abel Hernandez is without doubt Hull’s greatest goal threat having scored 21 goals this season equating to 30% of Hull’s total goals overall. He weighs in with a goal or assist 0.61 times for every 90 minutes played which is just over 1 goal or assist in every 2 games he plays. Despite this his shot quality is a negative figure meaning that he should probably have scored more, as the model suggests the average player would score around 25 goals for the same shots he took. Despite this Hernandez is an all round finisher scoring goals with both feet from all different angles which is apparent below. The image also shows all of his goals came from inside the area so it’s of paramount importance that he is closed down should he gain possession of the ball inside the box.

Abel Hernandez Goal and Assists 2015/2016

2. Robert Snodgrass

Robert Snodgrass is the second most influential player with 3 goals and 5 assists this season. Despite not being involved much at the start of the season due to injury, he has began to find consistency and has made 23 appearances playing 1,561 minutes overall. Again his goals and assists are coming at a rate 0.46 for every 90 minutes played which is just under 1 in every 2 games and he will be a real threat. The majority of his impact is made on the right hand side where he has played a lot of the season but has since moved across to the left.

Robert Snodgrass Goals and Assists 2015/2016

3. Mohamed Diame

Mohamed Diame is next most influential player from central midfield making 37 appearances this season totalling 2,503 minutes. Diame’s goal tally of 8 for the season is testament to the dangerous late forward runs the Hull midfielders make as the image shows 7 of his 8 goals coming from inside the box. With 4 assists to add to the total we can see that his goals and assists are coming at a rate of 0.43 per 90 minutes played which is only slightly less than Robert Snodgrass. The goal’s Diame creates tend to be balls from a central area around 25 yards out played through the lines with Hernandez being the beneficiary on 3 of the 4 assists.

Mohamed Diame Goals and Assists 2015/2016

Diame assist for Hernandez

I hope you found this brief overview of Hull City interesting, please share if you did and make sure you tweet me with any feedback/suggestions as this is my first article.

 

*NOTE – Games are from the regular Championship seasons only (Cup & Play-off games aren’t included)

**NOTE – I am not accountable for the accuracy of the stats as I am not collecting them, so any errors are out of my control unfortunately