Are Dave’s days numbered? Statistical Analysis of new SWFC signing Steven Fletcher

With Sheffield Wednesday announcing their first summer signing ahead of the new 2016/2017 campaign, I have taken a look at how new recruit Steven Fletcher compares to current squad members, paying particular attention to Atdhe Nuhiu. Having played on loan at Marseille towards the end of last season, his contract recently expired at Sunderland meaning he could join the Owls on a free transfer.

Goals

Steven Fletcher comes with a proven track record having played 7 seasons of Premier League football with Burnley, Wolves and Sunderland. As the stats from last season show, Fletcher instantly offers a greater goal threat than Nuhiu, before even taking into consideration a differentiation in leagues. He is also an overachiever in terms of goal output visible from the difference between Non-Penalty Goals and Chance Quality (xG). Just to briefly explain, Chance Quality looks at how many goals the average player would score when taking the same shots from the same locations as the player in question. As is clear from the difference, Fletcher overshoots by 0.07 meaning that his goal threat is 7% greater than the average player, playing the same amount of minutes and taking the same shots. Compare this to Atdhe Nuhiu who undershoots by -8%, Fletcher offers a 15% greater goal threat for the Owls.

Assists

As he will more than likely be playing upfront with Gary Hooper, Fletcher’s stats would suggest a potential link-up between the two. The fact that he plays more through balls and creates more chances than Nuhiu, could compliment Gary Hooper nicely, particularly as Hooper looks to play off these through balls and finishing the chances created for him. Despite Fletcher not producing an assist last season, the Assist Quality (xA) stat tells us that from the chances he created 0.95 worth of assists probably deserving of at least 1 assist. Compare this to Atdhe Nuhiu who generated 5 league assists last season, the same model ranked his assist quality at 1.46. Compare these to the minutes played on the radar and Steven Fletcher comes out marginally on top meaning he is creating marginally better chances per 90 minutes played.

Pressing

As is a big part of Sheffield Wednesday’s playing style (and Atdhe Nuhiu’s for that matter) the defensive actions in the opposition half is of big importance. As you can see from the “Oppo Half Turnovers” section of the radar plot, Atdhe Nuhiu leads the way in winning the ball back in the opposition half, winning the back 8.23 times per 90 mins compared to 7.09 times per 90 for Steven Fletcher. The impact of this is that although it’s slightly less than Atdhe Nuhiu, he still fits the bill as he is still attempting to win the ball back, especially when viewed against other players such as Hooper who only produces 3.04 turnovers per 90.

So are Dave’s days numbered?

I personally believe that Atdhe Nuhiu’s days aren’t numbered. Despite his finishing being particularly poor he carries strengths in other areas of the field which make him an asset tactically. Although he will probably not be first choice since the introduction of Fletcher, his strengths could prove useful towards the end of games where his strong aerial presence and defensive work rate could prove useful in chasing a late goal or holding onto a lead.

Why Sheffield Wednesday SHOULDN’T sign Ross McCormack…. for £8-£12 million anyway

Like my other articles, it’s early days in my writing career so please share any feedback/improvements by tweeting me @cl_ftbl on Twitter. Your feedback is crucial for allowing me to improve and I appreciate any feedback you provide. 

Following on from my last piece around rumoured transfer target Sabir Sarioglu which can be seen HERE. It was suggested to me on Twitter to do a comparison between Gary Hooper and rumoured transfer target Ross McCormack. While delving into the stats of both I came across some interesting discoveries which posed the following questions;

• Is Ross McCormack worth the rather hefty price tag (Rumoured to be around £8-£12 million)?
• Is he any better than what we’ve already got?

My answer to both questions from a purely statistical standing, surprisingly is probably NOT. Here’s why:

As you can see from the radar plot below, what is striking firstly is the Appearance per 90 statistic. Ross McCormack appeared in 45 of Fulham’s 46 games over the 2015/2016 season while Gary Hooper only joined the Owls on loan in October, missing the first 3 months of the season before making a permanent switch in the January transfer window. As a result Gary Hooper only accumulated 21.9 appearances per 90 compared to the 44.3 appearances accumulated by McCormack. This would suggest a couple of things, firstly, if Gary Hooper had played the same amount of time as Ross McCormack then you could expect similar, if not greater levels of output from a similar amount of playing time. Although this isn’t clear and there is a good chance the numbers are unsustainable, it gives a good indication of what is capable from Gary Hooper if he had played the same amount of game time as Ross McCormack.

Goals

As the radar shows Gary Hooper has greater Shot Conversion, Non-Penalty Goal and xG (Chance Quality) stats. This tells us that for the minutes played, Gary Hooper was actually more prolific and carried a greater xG (Chance Quality) threat, getting in better scoring/shooting positions per 90 for the minutes played. The radar shows that Ross McCormack takes more shots per game and because of this his shot conversion % is a lot lower, this is more than likely due to the shot position with him taking more long shots as oppose to him being an inferior finisher.

Assists/Build-Up

While it’s clear to see that Ross McCormack dribbles the ball past more opponents per 90 (0.34 vs 0.23) and does slightly more work defensively than Gary Hooper, his output in terms of assists tells a similar story to his goal threat. McCormack generates 0.2 assists per 90 mins, only 0.02 greater than Gary Hooper (0.18), this again would suggest that should Gary Hooper have played a similar amount of time as Ross McCormack he could achieve something similar to the 10 assists McCormack accumulated last season. The greater levels of key passes (passes that lead to a shot) further backs up this point as Gary Hooper is making more key passes per 90 (1.46) compared to 1.38 for McCormack, meaning that Hooper may only be behind on the assists per 90 stat as McCormack’s key passes could have a better finisher on the end of them, or the key passes attempted by Hooper aren’t as good as the one’s McCormack is attempting. One clear positive that Gary Hooper has over Ross McCormack is the greater headed dual win % success (31.15% vs 12.5%) meaning that he carries a much greater aerial threat which is important to Sheffield Wednesday’s style of play for the volume of crosses they attempt. Despite this the Owls could maybe facilitate both players by moving Forestieri to the left and playing Hooper in a target man role alongside McCormack.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I’m not suggesting for one moment that Ross McCormack is a bad player, or is better than Gary Hooper, but perhaps the Ross McCormack statistics don’t tell the full story and perhaps people are falsely perceiving them as being better than they are, overlooking, overvaluing and failing to account for the minutes played. The numbers would suggest that Sheffield Wednesday have a more prolific striker on their hands and instead of spending the vast sum of money recruiting McCormack, they could turn their attentions to getting Gary Hooper fit and firing to achieve similar appearance/minutes statistics as Ross McCormack next season, potentially generating similar levels of output with the £12 million still in their pocket. Despite this, it must be noted that there is the risk that Gary Hooper might not sustain his current output, as there is the chance McCormack might not, so this is a £12 million risk the Owls will have to make as they aim to recover from the play-off final defeat and reach the Premier League in their 150th year as an established football club.

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