PLAY-OFF FINAL DEFEAT | SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY POST-MORTEM

Post-mortem into Sheffield Wednesdays defeat in Play-off final against Hull City

Like my other article, it’s early days in my writing career so please share any feedback/improvements by tweeting me @cl_ftbl on Twitter. Your feedback is crucial for allowing me to improve and I appreciate any feedback you can give me.

The purpose of this post is to complete a post-mortem into the defeat Sheffield Wednesday suffered in the Play-off final against Hull City. As a Sheffield Wednesday fan myself it was certainly a hard pill to swallow but everyone connected with the club should be proud of the progress we have made over the last 12 months. It would be unfair to start criticising individual performances as this is not what I’m here for, I will be focusing on what Hull City did well and how they nullified the threat the Owls posed and prevented us from playing our natural game.

Steve Bruce named an unchanged side whereas Carlos Carvalhal opted for one change bringing in Sam Hutchinson at the expense of Alex Lopez. The purpose of this change was certainly a tactical one with Hutchinson a more defensive option providing additional support to the centre-backs and managing the threat Diame posed, particularly the late midfield runs I spoke about in the opposition analysis.

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Hull v Sheffield Wednesday – Chance Quality (xG) Map

Overall, Hull City edged the game and deserved their win with a chance quality (xG) of 1.91 compared to a chance quality of 0.77 for Sheffield Wednesday. As discussed before, the meaning of this is that you would expect an average team to score 1.91 goals for the chances Hull City created and 0.77 goals for the Sheffield Wednesday chances. The overall impact of this is that Hull City created more, and had the better chances meaning they probably ran out deserved winners.

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Above are GIF’s comparing the passing networks for each team for the Play-off final to the respective Play-off semi final winning games, incidentally both in the first leg. If you have watched Sheffield Wednesday much this season then you will know how important play through the centre of the park is to the playing style. The wide men will look to sit narrow dragging the opposing full backs inside creating space for Hunt and Pudil to overlap and create overloads. (I might do an article on Sheffield Wednesdays playing style if there is enough interest, please let me know if so)

If you firstly look at the Hull City map you can see how much deeper Huddlestone was operating and how much higher the two central defenders were. This prevented any space between the defensive and midfield lines meaning Forestieri and Hooper were unable to get on the ball and found themselves isolated for a lot of the game. If you then look at the Sheffield Wednesday map you will see Wallace taking up a much wider position and Hooper in a much deeper position, this was forced upon due to the lack of space in the middle, so they had to move positions to try and get on the ball. You will also see how much higher Elmohamady and Odubajo were operating on the Hull City right, which explains why Pudil was in a much deeper position and struggled to get forward as he found himself pinned back.

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Forestieri crowded out, no support and Hull turnover

Hull were pressing really quickly in their own half and remaining tight to Forestieri and Hooper meaning that the Owls were unable to get the ball into their forwards feet, when they did find feet they struggled to get support around the receiver allowing Hull to crowd them out and force a turnover in play. The one time the Owls managed to get the ball into feet Forestieri turned Dawson on the 8th minute and was in-behind the Hull defence until he was cynically brought down. The Owls were patiently moving the ball across the backline for a lot of the first half probing the Hull defence, but they found it difficult to find a rhythm and play their natural game.

Hull’s key player on the day was certainly Mohamed Diame. He was causing some real problems for the Owls winning the ball back in midfield and driving at the Owls defence. You could see the Owls were struggling to cope as he hit the post early on from one of those driving central midfield runs. Although I don’t have the video, the Owls had put in preventative measures to deal with this as Kieran Lee was following the third man runner on many occasions, but on this occasion Diame managed to find the space on a counter attack. Diame’s range of passing was another threat identified in the opposition analysis proving effective, his through ball in the 29th minute sent Hernandez one-on-one which would have put Hull one up but for a fine save by Kieran Westwood.

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Diame driving run, hits post

It’s clear to see that Diame is a quality player and should be playing at a higher level but having spoke to a lot of Hull fans he, like a lot of their team struggled to find consistency over the course of the season, which explains why they didn’t finish in a much higher league position. The link between Diame and Hernandez is at the heart of everything Hull City do so well, retaining both of these will be crucial to their Premier League status next season.

As a Sheffield Wednesday fan I would like to congratulate Hull City on their win and wish them all the best for the future.

Don’t forget to tweet me your feedback on this article @cl_ftbl

 

HULL IN NUMBERS | OPPOSITION ANALYSIS OF HULL CITY FC

This is my first attempt at an article of this kind so I would really appreciate it if you could share your honest feedback by tweeting me @cl_ftbl

Hull City booked their place into the Championship play-off final as they ran out 3-2 winners on aggregate against Derby County over two legs. Despite a 2-0 home defeat in the second leg, their efforts in the first proved to be enough where they secured a 3-0 victory at the iPro Stadium. The purpose of this post is to analyse the threat Hull City pose through their playing style and identification of key players. Hull finished the league in 4th position as the fourth top scorers in the league with the second best defence in the division. (only Middlesbrough conceded fewer goals)

Formation

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Hull’s formation is apparent from the Season Passing Network operating in a 433 formation with Hernandez the most advanced central striker, supported by Snodgrass and Elmohamady on the left and right respectively. You can expect to see Huddlestone as the deepest lying of the three midfielders playing as a pivot allowing Livermore and Diame to get forward and support Hernandez. Snodgrass has spent a lot of the season playing on the right but has recently switched to the left as Clucas dropped out with Elmohamady his replacement. The fullbacks will tirelessly get forward with Robertson on the left who is technically very good and Odubajo on the right who is equally as good but has a more direct approach and is comfortable on both feet.

Playing Style

Hull like the to get the ball out wide quickly and utilise the attacking abilities of their full backs. Odubajo and Robertson will get forward at almost every opportunity and the threat of Elmohamady coupled with Odubajo on the right is an area Hull will look to exploit. The exploitation of the flanks is backed up with the solidity of the midfield who are all 6 foot plus with proven Premier League experience. Hull will look to use this physicality to dominate the midfield so it’s crucial this threat is managed. Late forward runs from the midfield trio are also a threat especially from Diame who has weighed in with 8 goals and 4 assists this season.

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Diame goal from supporting run

Goal Locations

The goal chart below shows the location of all Hull City’s goals this season. As you can see 92% of Hull’s goals came from inside the box with 59.4% coming from the right hand side of the goal and 40.6% coming from the left.

Hull Goals
Hull Goal Locations

Assist Locations

The Assist chart below shows the assist locations joined with a line to where the eventual goalscorer collects the ball. The chart shows a lot of balls from the left to the right which explains why 59.4% of Hull’s goals have come from the right hand side of the field.

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Hull Assist Locations
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Robertson Assist Left-to-Right

Key Players

The Goal scoring table gives a clear indication of Hull City’s three most potent threats who will require special attention:

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Hull Player Stats 2015/16

** Shot Quality – Based on historic shots, how many times the average team would score from a shot in the same position (For more info search ‘Expected Goals’) **

  1. Abel Hernandez

Abel Hernandez is without doubt Hull’s greatest goal threat having scored 21 goals this season equating to 30% of Hull’s total goals overall. He weighs in with a goal or assist 0.61 times for every 90 minutes played which is just over 1 goal or assist in every 2 games he plays. Despite this his shot quality is a negative figure meaning that he should probably have scored more, as the model suggests the average player would score around 25 goals for the same shots he took. Despite this Hernandez is an all round finisher scoring goals with both feet from all different angles which is apparent below. The image also shows all of his goals came from inside the area so it’s of paramount importance that he is closed down should he gain possession of the ball inside the box.

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Abel Hernandez Goal and Assists 2015/2016
  1. Robert Snodgrass

Robert Snodgrass is the second most influential player with 3 goals and 5 assists this season. Despite not being involved much at the start of the season due to injury, he has began to find consistency and has made 23 appearances playing 1,561 minutes overall. Again his goals and assists are coming at a rate 0.46 for every 90 minutes played which is just under 1 in every 2 games and he will be a real threat. The majority of his impact is made on the right hand side where he has played a lot of the season but has since moved across to the left.

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Robert Snodgrass Goals and Assists 2015/2016
  1. Mohamed Diame

Mohamed Diame is next most influential player from central midfield making 37 appearances this season totalling 2,503 minutes. Diame’s goal tally of 8 for the season is testament to the dangerous late forward runs the Hull midfielders make as the image shows 7 of his 8 goals coming from inside the box. With 4 assists to add to the total we can see that his goals and assists are coming at a rate of 0.43 per 90 minutes played which is only slightly less than Robert Snodgrass. The goal’s Diame creates tend to be balls from a central area around 25 yards out played through the lines with Hernandez being the beneficiary on 3 of the 4 assists.

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Mohamed Diame Goals and Assists 2015/2016
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Diame assist for Hernandez

I hope you found this brief overview of Hull City interesting, please share if you did and make sure you tweet me with any feedback/suggestions as this is my first article.

 

*NOTE – Games are from the regular Championship seasons only (Cup & Play-off games aren’t included)

**NOTE – I am not accountable for the accuracy of the stats as I am not collecting them, so any errors are out of my control unfortunately